By Jerome A. Cohen
The next two-plus months will be politically fascinating, in terms of both domestic politics and US foreign policy. The Biden people have an enormous challenge before them in planning and staffing a comprehensive new government and reconciling conflicting pressures within the Democratic Party regarding personnel choices as well as policies.
It will be even more interesting to watch the immediate maneuvers within the Republican Party elite and to consider their implications for Republican leadership in the next few years and the emerging rivalries for 2024 presidential candidacy.
How uncomfortable Trump must be to face post-January 20 legal problems! Will he follow the Nixon precedent and resign before his term ends in order to allow Pence to succeed him and then pardon him for all federal offenses? No such sleight of hand can readily eliminate the threat of serious state prosecutions. And Trump is undoubtedly thinking of running again in 2024.
Pence is now in an awkward position. His contrasting behavior with Trump’s has made him look conventionally respectable and a possibly serious 2024 candidate himself. But how should he conduct himself in the next weeks if Trump continues his objectionable behavior? Will Pence look too similar to Gerald Ford if he agrees with the pardon ploy? At least Ford knew that Nixon would not run against him in the 1976 election. If Trump’s health holds up and he is not convicted of state or federal crimes, Trump may well run again. Moreover, a host of other Republicans will now emerge as possible 2024 contenders, trying to build on the huge Republican turnout of this past election. And will the likes of Mitt Romney, Susan Collins and other non-Trumpists within the party do anything other than react with ineffectual gestures?
Despite all these domestic preoccupations, foreign policy issues will need immediate attention. We will have much to chew over very soon, with considerable attention increasingly centering on the monumental January 5 run-off elections for both Georgia senators. Because control of the Senate is at stake, the outcome will be important for both domestic and foreign policy issues, and huge resources will be brought to bear.