By Jerome A. Cohen
Although I always thought that the 2005 Anti-Secession Law was much-ado-about-nothing, the National Security Law (NSL) is very different. Whereas Taiwan was relatively unaffected by the passage of the Anti-Secession Law, the NSL is already having a huge impact on many aspects of life in HK, but quietly. For example, will scheduled courses in Chinese politics and modern history be taught in the coming academic year and how? Appointments and promotions made as originally anticipated? Will people exercise their freedoms as before? Beijing is waiting to assess the immediate impact.
In the meantime, the NSL has aroused far greater international concern than perhaps anticipated, so Beijing has another motive for proceeding slowly rather than via the “Operation Thunderbolt” that former Hong Kong deputy police commissioner Tony Kwok recommended. Prosecutions under the NSL may be a later manifestation of the new regime. Besides, there are the existing prosecutions under the pre-July 1 regime. E.g., Benny Tai may lose his appeal. Joshua Wong may also go to prison without the need to apply the NSL. But the clock is ticking on the September Legislative Council election, and this will likely be the first public shoe to drop in seriously implementing this all-encompassing, vague NSL. No nasty Central Government criminal prosecutions are yet necessary, but “merely” a succession of technical, administrative steps that will ultimately emasculate the election. The process will seem relatively soothing and assuring compared to the spectacle that would be created by dragging Martin Lee and Dennis Kwok to Beijing for incommunicado detention and secret trial.