By Jerome A. Cohen
After a largely sleepless night worrying about what China ought to be doing to try to end the tragic and increasingly dangerous crisis over Ukraine, I awoke to this impressive warning by Ashford and Shifrinson that outlines the many possibilities for the current conflict quickly developing into World War III. I hope that elites in all relevant countries give it a careful reading. Yet it is curious that the authors make little mention of the possible role of China in extinguishing the fire.
Thus far Ukraine has cast Xi Jinping and his government in a very poor light. Have they been disingenuous in portraying their relations with Putin and his government on the eve of invasion? Were they duped? Did Xi Jinping know more about Putin’s plans and agree to more than he shared with even his own foreign minister? Since the war’s outbreak, the PRC has resembled the proverbial deer caught in the headlights, bobbing, weaving and waffling unpersuasively in an attempt to cope with multiple pressures. It is time now for it to adopt a bold, statesmanlike position and vigorously pursue the role of mediator to which it has made occasional vague reference. China has much to gain from such an effort even if mediation were to fail.
Successful mediation will not be easy, even first to achieve an effective ceasefire throughout Ukraine. Settlement terms will be harder to come by but should be achievable with the cooperation of the Western powers. For example, Ukraine could become, at least for the foreseeable future, the Switzerland of Eastern Europe. Zelensky and his government should remain in place and independent but commit to abstaining from NATO. They should also recognize the loss of Crimea and provide for a special autonomous regime within Ukraine for the two eastern provinces. Such distasteful concessions should make it possible for Russia to accept the humiliating failure of its disastrous policy. Western sanctions would obviously be diminished in accordance with progress made in implementing the terms of settlement.
China’s serious efforts to help end the war would have benefits that extend far beyond the Ukraine crisis. They could moderate the present extremely negative Western perceptions of the PRC and its policies at home and abroad and make it easier for the Biden administration and other governments to initiate measures to improve relations with Beijing despite strong domestic anti-PRC pressures. If Beijing fails to do more than unimpressively dither over Ukraine, the situation in Asia is likely to worsen as many major powers take steps to further bolster Taiwan against the PRC’s threats to use force to overwhelm the island’s admirable democracy.