My interview with the Diplomat: Xi and CCP Aim for Unchallenged Power

This is my interview of last week with the Diplomat on the continuing discussion of Xi Jinping's ending the President's term limits.

https://thediplomat.com/2018/03/jerome-cohen-xi-and-ccp-aim-for-unchallenged-power/ 

Jerome Cohen: Xi and CCP Aim for Unchallenged Power

To whom much is given, much will be required.

By Maurits Elen

March 07, 2018

The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has contributed much to the success of the modern Chinese nation — a gradual liberalization strategy of the economy has produced widespread growth and raised the standard of living for millions of people. If China continues its current trajectory, it will be crowned the world’s largest economy not long from now.

No one would disagree, however, that China has also become an increasingly oppressive society, with an ever more authoritarian government suppressing the freedoms of its 1.4 billion citizens in order to meet policy objectives. The trend does not seem likely to be reversed anytime soon. In this interview, Jerome Cohen, a Professor of Law at New York University and lifelong friend of China, shares his views on the National People’s Congress’ upcoming decision to remove the presidential term limit from the Chinese Constitution.

Maurits Elen: Are peaceful power transitions in China, as seen since Deng Xiaoping, now less likely to occur without clear succession mechanisms in place?

Jerome Cohen: As many observers agree, ending the term limit is a recipe for increasing political instability and weakening, and perhaps even ultimately dividing the Party. With no designated successor, serious illness or death of the leader could lead to chaos long before the end of the second term, not to mention beyond that.

There are Western leaders who have served a prolonged time in office, sometimes more than a decade. How does this compare to Xi?

Long leadership in a democratic country places the leader and his party in an entirely different position. As the British public demonstrated after World War II when it repudiated the great Churchill after he led the country to victory, even the greatest leader can be replaced in a democracy. And remember the British decided to bring Winston back after they got a dose of Clement Attlee. It was all very orderly, even despite the fact that the U.K. was in a bad domestic shape and was losing its international power at the time.

[Click here to continue reading this interview.]

China is likely to enter another long period of severe dictatorship

By Jerome A. Cohen

Term limits for the leadership are not usually found in dictatorships. The Chinese Communist Party’s proposed abolition of China’s presidential term limit means that it has forgotten one of the main lessons of Mao’s long despotism. The two-term limit was inserted into the People’s Republic of China Constitution after the Cultural Revolution ended and reflected a widespread desire to prevent the return of one-man dictatorship. Its abolition signals the likelihood of another long period of severe repression. This should prompt us to think of Chiang Kaishek as well as Mao and Yuan Shikai and, in a comparative Asian vein, of Marcos and Park among others. Of course, some recognize that Putin’s example may also have significantly influenced Xi Jinping.

Xi’s move will have a profound effect on world order. It will enable him to move more boldly and increases the risk of his acting arbitrarily and perhaps mistakenly in international relations. It will surely hinder China’s efforts to be respected for “soft power” as well as military and economic prowess.

Xi decided to strike while the iron is hot rather than wait for later in his new term when increasing problems might have made the change more difficult. His brash step has undoubtedly aroused profound concern among the elite. Many high Party personnel, bureaucrats, judicial officials, lawyers, intellectuals, academics and business people, mindful of the past Maoist dictatorship and the increasingly repressive and arbitrary government under Xi, have seen this coming and now, in social media and other informal ways, are showing their anxieties and opposition.

But not many public signs of protest can be expected, since he has stifled free expression in the past few years. There must be great grumbling and concern among the country’s elite and educated, especially since the same Party “proposals” that have eliminated term limits have also confirmed the establishment of the National Supervisory Commission that will make the regime more repressive and more free of legal restraints than ever, imposing what amounts to “the Inquisition with Chinese characteristics.”

There is big risk for Xi at home since, as it becomes more obvious that China’s problems are catching up with its achievements, the government will look less impressive and the masses will begin to lose their enthusiasm and hold the great leader responsible. The elite will be less surprised but less forgiving.

The external risk is more immediate. Xi’s bold consolidation of power will enhance fear of “the China threat”, and his ever greater repression will make people think of Stalin’s decades-long centralization of power, even though, one hopes, Xi will not engage in mass executions. He already is engaging in mass detentions in Xinjiang even though “re-education through labor” was abolished in name a few years ago.

These “proposals” are at least a 1-2 punch against the Constitution when we consider the simultaneous establishment of the National Supervisory Commission. People often wonder—even now—how in 1937 Stalin could have said: “We need the stability of the law more than ever.” while at the very same time displaying the infamous “purge trials” to the world and lawlessly executing huge numbers of people. Xi claims to be strengthening the “rule of law” while making certain that it will never get off the ground. Tell it to all the tens of thousands in Xinjiang who are locked up in Xi’s successor camps to the supposedly abolished “re-education through labor”.